NFL week 4 was the week of the home underdogs which is one of our dozens of winning trends that we preach to our subscribers and readers as far as winning handicapping formulas. In all there were 9 home underdogs last week and 5 of them covered. Home underdogs have covered at a nearly 60 percent clip since 2000 and the trick to is to identify which ones have the best chance to cover. We successfully picked 6 of the 9 correctly and if Alex Smith doesn't get hurt on the first play of the game, you can bet the 49ers would have been much more competitive against the Seahawks. Now we go on to Week 5 and below is our first impression of the betting lines of the week with our picks to come later in the week.
Arizona Cardinals (-3) VS. ST. LOUIS RAMS: Home underdog alert here but the Rams are an absolute mess. They are desperate however and this game looks like th Bills scenario last week against the Jets when they covered and won. The Cardinals are playing well however but they could letdown here on the road after a huge win against the Steelers on Sunday.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Another home underdog here as the 49ers start the awful Trent Dilfer. The Ravens lost last week as a road favorite against the Browns and back-to-back road games are always a betting negative.
DENVER BRONCOS (-1.5) VS. San Diego Chargers: Tough one here as both teams come in off a loss. Broncos very inconsistent and the Chargers are seriously doubting themselves.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3) VS. Chicago Bears: The Packers survived a very negative scenario last week in Minnesota and now look to go 5-0 at home against the Bears. Chicago is a mess right now and they are very desperate. Could be desperate enough to steal one here.
HOUSTON TEXANS (-5.5) VS. Dolphins: Texans are hurting without WR Andre Johnson and the Dolphins are just terrible after being run over by the Raiders. 5.5 is a lot of points but the Dolphins can't score.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-10) VS. Tampa Bay Bay Buccaneers: Interesting game here as the surprising Buc's go into Indy to face the 4-0 Colts. Indy looks like a machine once again and they have played nearly perfect football. They can be prone to letdown's at home if they are giving 10 or more as they are here but the Buc's might be hurting with the loss of Cadillac Williams.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2) VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: The Chiefs shocked the Chargers last week and this team always plays tough. Jaguars won in Denver and then come in off a bye. Winning two in a row on the road is always tough but the Chiefs could letdown here. This is also another home underdog game to look at.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-16) VS. Cleveland Browns: The Pats are a perfect 4-0 ATS and theye look unstoppable. This line is not too high in that they covered the same number against the Bills two weeks ago. The Browns are playing better but they struggle on the road.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3) VS. Carolina Panthers: Its now or never for the Saints as they come off a bye and a loss at home the week before. Losing two in a row with such a talented team is rare but the Panthers might get Jake Delhomme back which would aid their chances in this game.
NY GIANTS (-3.5) VS. NY Jets: Desperation angle at work here for the Jets as they must win to stay in the playoff hierarchy. The Giants are very confident after their huge win against the Eagles however and they are playing their best ball in quite awhile.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6) VS. Seattle Seahawks: Steelers are in rebound mode after losing in Arizona last week. Seattle is hot right now and they are very confident after beating the 49ers into submission on Sunday.
TENNESSEE TITANS (-9) VS. Atlanta Falcons: The Titans have covered nine straight games and they go home to face a weak Falcons squad. This spread is high though since Tennessee is not a high-scoring team. Also the Falcons are playing better.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-3.5) VS. Detroit Lions: Tough one to call as both teams have issues. Lions can't stop anyone but they can score at will. The Redskins can't score but they play tough defense.
Dallas Cowboys (-10) VS. BUFFALO BILLS: Home underdog scenario which is what the Bills were in as they covered and won last week against the Jets. The Cowboys keep rolling along and their offense looks unstoppable.
Cofounder of http://www.yourwinningpicks.com/ in our tenth year of supplying sports handicapping and fantasy sports information.
