When discussing the rise of future superstar running back Beanie Wells, many people often point out that Wells will have a difficult time living up to his bidding, because he will be sharing carries with Arizona incumbent Tim Hightower. There is an obvious talent gap between Wells and Hightower, but people often cite that Hightower will be difficult to take off the field because he is such a good goaline and short yardage runner.
Ladies and gentlemen, this is a myth. It is true that Hightower has a goaline and short yardage conversion rate of 50% over the last two years, which puts him amongst the top of the league, even ahead of guys like Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones Drew, and Steven Jackson, and Hightower optimists are quick to point this out. However, how much of that is Tim Hightower, and how much is it just the Arizona Cardinals run blocking and system in general? Let's examine further.
Tim Hightower entered the league in 2008 and immediately had success in short yardage situations, giving him the stigma of a short yardage (and receiving) specialist. However, did you know that Arizona's other two running backs over the last two years have actually performed better than Hightower in that area?
Exhibit A is Edgerrin James. Let me tell you a little something about Edgerrin James' history at the goaline. Do you remember that magical, 49 touchdown season that Peyton Manning have? Well, you have Edgerrin James' struggles at the goaline to thank for that. You see, through six games in that magical 2004 season, no one was talking about Peyton Manning breaking the TD record. If anything, all eyes were on Daunte Culpepper, who was blowing Manning out of the water.
Meanwhile, in Indy, Edgerrin James was on pace to set the record for most goaline carries in a season. He had more than 20 in a mere six games. But, with those 20 carries, he had but a couple touchdowns to show for it, and was among the league's worst (beating out only Warrick Dunn) in short yardage conversion ratio. So Indy decided to take the ball away from Edge and give it to Peyton. After getting more than 20 goaline attempts in his first six games, Edge got only six more in the final ten games of the season. Of course, those attempts instead went to Peyton, who eventually set the NFL record for touchdown passes.
Peyton Manning only set the record for touchdowns in 2004 because Edgerrin James was so bad at the goaline that they abandoned the run down there all together. That should give you some context as to how poor a goaline runner Edgerrin James is. His career conversion rate at the stripe is under 30%. But in 2008, on the Arizona Cardinals, Edgerrin James converted more than 60% of his short yardage rushes. In 2009, Beanie Well came aboard, and converted 60% of his short yardage rushes as well.
Now that we know an unknown rookie and an aging vet who was one of the worst goaline runners in the league both converted 60% of their short yardage rushes on the same team that Hightower converted 50% of his on, it gives us some perspective. Hightower's short yardage numbers look good compared to the rest of the league, but he doesn't play on the same team as the rest of the league, and the guys who do play in the same team, with the same run blockers, both were better than Hightower in short yardage situations, even though one of them had a history of being poor in that respect.
So, what makes the Cardinals so good in short yardage situations? It could be the run blocking, or more likely, it could be that the threat of Fitzgerald, Boldin, and Warner kept teams from stacking the box too much even in short yardage situations. Whatever it is, it is most certainly not that they just happen to have the three best short yardage running backs in the league, one of whom has proven time and time again that he is actually poor in that scenario.
Hightower is the benefactor of a good situation, nothing more.
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