Minnesota Vikings 2010 Strength of Schedule, Futures Odds and Betting Picks

In a perfect world, I wouldn't write an analysis or give my overview of the 2010 Minnesota Vikings schedule until late August, which is probably when Brett Favre makes his return "official" - with LeBron James finally deciding his NBA future, now it's Favre's "will he or won't he" that probably dominates the sports headlines for a while. But we all know he's playing this year because he already has had ankle surgery that he wouldn't have needed if he wasn't going to play football. And he's also out throwing to high schoolers in Mississippi.

Of course, last season the Vikings won the NFC North at 12-4 and advanced to the NFC Championship Game, losing when the Saints picked off Favre in the waning moments of the fourth quarter of a tie game, won the coin toss in overtime and then drove right down for a winning field goal - leading to an overtime rule change for the postseason. Most people would agree that Minnesota outplayed New Orleans in the Saints' house.

Pretty much every key piece will return to Minnesota, as the team got great legal news in June when a Minnesota judge made a ruling in the StarCaps case that essentially assures that Pat and Kevin Williams won't have to serve their four-game suspensions this season. Those two are the biggest reason that the Vikings have been so good against the run in recent years, with the team ranking No. 2 in rush defense in 2009 at 87.1 yards per game.

Minnesota will have to replace Chester Taylor as Adrian Peterson's backup, but it looks like the Vikes are content with Stanford rookie Toby Gerhart handling that job. There is a bit of concern over a lingering hip injury to WR Sidney Rice, who had a breakthrough year with 83 receptions for 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns in 2009. Rice's agent says he doesn't anticipate that his client will need surgery and should be ready for the opener.

The Vikings have won two more games than the previous season each year since 2006. Will it happen again? Let's take a look at the Minnesota Vikings schedule:

Week 1: Thursday, Sep. 9, at New Orleans, 8:30 PM

Week 2: Sunday, Sep. 19, Miami, 1:00 PM

Week 3: Sunday, Sep. 26, Detroit, 1:00 PM

Week 4: BYE

Week 5: Monday, Oct. 11, at NY Jets, 8:30 PM

Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 17, Dallas, 4:15 PM

Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 24, at Green Bay, 8:20 PM

Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 31, at New England, 4:15 PM

Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 7, Arizona, 1:00 PM

Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 14, at Chicago, 1:00 PM

Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 21, Green Bay, 1:00 PM

Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 28, at Washington, 1:00 PM

Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 5, Buffalo, 1:00 PM

Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 12, NY Giants, 1:00 PM

Week 15: Monday, Dec. 20, Chicago, 8:30 PM

Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 26, at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM

Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 2, at Detroit, 1:00 PM

This schedule ranks 14th in the NFL spreads in terms of opponents' 2009 winning percentage (129-107,.504). There are eight games against seven playoff teams from last year (two vs. Green Bay).

Think Favre will be fired up for that opener back in New Orleans after his mistake in the conference title game? I'd call that game a toss-up, but you have to like the Saints at home as they celebrate the Super Bowl title and raise a banner. New Orleans is a 4-point favorite on BetUS.

We are looking at the football betting lines and expect Minnesota to be at worst 2-1 heading into a Week 4 bye that no team would want that early. And arguably the crucial stretch of the season starts right out of the bye with five consecutive games against 2009 playoff teams, including the New York Jets, Green Bay and New England on the road. That looks like 2-3 at best.

Then you have the Bears, who certainly could be a playoff team this year. And the Bears beat the Vikings 36-30 in OT in Chicago last season. Minnesota probably can expect a 2-1 stretch before returning home for a rare three-game homestand (although it's the second year in a row team has had one). The Vikes will be favored in each of those. Minnesota has also won its last nine regular season home games since 2008 and has a.719 winning percentage at home in the last 12 seasons.

The weather certainly could be a big factor in Philly before the Vikes get to return to the creature comforts in a dome with what should be a win against Detroit. BetUS has this team's win total set at 9.5. I think the Vikings get to 10-6 as long as they don't lose more than one home game. The NFL Power Rankings show Minnesota at +650 to win the NFC and while I think they certainly have a shot to get back to the conference title game, I don't expect it.

Doc Moseman is one of the pioneers of college football and the NFL handicapping industry. Check out his Web site for up -to-the-minute NFL Odds and his famous winning college football and NFL picks.

Baltimore Ravens 2010 Strength of Schedule, Futures Odds and Predictions

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The Baltimore Ravens entered the regular-season finale in 2008 needing a victory to reach the playoffs and last season was no different as an 8-7 Ravens team went to Oakland knowing a loss would keep them at home. Baltimore had little trouble in a 21-13 victory that got it a Wild-Card round matchup with New England.

And the Ravens then laid a 33-14 beat down on a Pats team that had been unbeaten at home in the regular season. Baltimore also snapped the Patriots' home playoff win streak at 11 games, handing New England its first home playoff loss since 1978. The Ravens did this despite Joe Flacco going 4-for-10 for 34 yards and a pick.

While Flacco was lousy in that game and then the following week in a loss to the Colts, he was very good during the season with 3,613 yards passing on 63.1 percent completions with 21 touchdowns and 12 picks. Pretty much all his numbers were up from his rookie year despite the lack of a true No. 1 receiver. The real star of Baltimore's offense last year and one of the NFL's breakout players was running back Ray Rice. The former Rutgers star joined Jamal Lewis as the only Ravens player in team history to have more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage. Rice rushed for 1,339 yards and caught 78 passes for 702 yards. But other than Flacco, Rice and to some degree Derrick Mason (73 catches, 1,028 yards, seven TDs) the Baltimore offense lacked playmakers.

Baltimore thinks it solved that problem with the offseason trade for Arizona WR Anquan Boldin and the signing of Donte Stallworth, who sat last season out due to suspension. Boldin should give the team the No. 1 threat it has lacked for years, but this still will be a running team.

The Ravens remain among the league's best defensive teams, ranking third overall last year and fifth against the rush. They have one of the best players in the league on the defensive line (Haloti Ngata), at linebacker (the ageless Ray Lewis), and in the secondary (Ed Reed). The only concern for this unit is whether Reed will miss the first six weeks, as he has hinted he may go on the PUP list as he recovers from offseason hip surgery. Certainly that would hurt this unit.

The experts list Baltimore's 2010 wins total at 9.5 and the Ravens as the AFC North favorites at -160.

Let's see how the 2010 Baltimore Ravens schedule breaks down:

Week 1: Monday, Sep. 13, at NY Jets, 7:00 PM
Week 2: Sunday, Sep. 19, at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM
Week 3: Sunday, Sep. 26, Cleveland, 1:00 PM
Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 3, at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 10, Denver, 1:00 PM
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 17, at New England, 1:00 PM
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 24, Buffalo, 1:00 PM
Week 8: BYE
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 7, Miami, 1:00 PM
Week 10: Thursday, Nov. 11, at Atlanta, 8:20 PM
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 21, at Carolina, 1:00 PM
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 28, Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 5, Pittsburgh, 8:20 PM
Week 14: Monday, Dec. 13, at Houston, 8:30 PM
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 19, New Orleans, 1:00 PM
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 26, at Cleveland, 1:00 PM
Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 2, Cincinnati, 1:00 PM

This schedule is ranked as the 12th toughest in the NFL, with an opponents' 2009 winning percentage of.508 (130-126). The Ravens don't have to worry much about travel, with 15 of their 16 regular-season games in the Eastern Time Zone for only the second time in team history so watch those NFL point spreads. And there are no West Coast trips, which is always a benefit.

If Baltimore can get to the bye week above.500 that would be a major accomplishment and set this team up nicely for an easier schedule post-bye. Four of the Ravens' first six games are on the road, including the first Monday night game (against the Jets) at the new Giants Stadium. That's the first time the Ravens will face former defensive coordinator Rex Ryan, New York's head coach. That game should be a bruising, low-scoring affair. The Jets have opened as three-point favorites. Then Baltimore gets a chance for revenge against a Bengals team that swept the Ravens last year, allowing Baltimore a total of just 21 points. Of course a former Ravens defensive coordinator also coaches Cincy: Marvin Lewis. It's the first time in franchise history that Baltimore opens with two road games - a split would be a great result.

The Ravens should handle Cleveland and then catch a huge break that they play Pittsburgh in Week 4 and not Week 5 because Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger will be not allowed back until after four games. Thus a road win there could give Baltimore the early upper hand for the division. The Ravens will be solid favorites in home games against Denver and the Bills but a likely dog at a New England team that will be out for vengeance - if Pats WR Wes Welker goes on the PUP list, Baltimore would avoid him as it did in last year's playoff game.

Baltimore should beat Miami with a week off prior before facing three straight NFC South teams. That quick turnaround against the Falcons likely favors Atlanta because at least it's at home on the short week. And that tremendous Carolina ground game will challenge the Ravens. That game at Houston looks like a loss as Baltimore traditionally has not been a good team on Monday nights (5-8). The matchup against the Saints marks the fifth year in a row the Ravens face the reigning Super Bowl champions. That it's in the elements is a huge advantage for Baltimore. And really there's no reason the Ravens shouldn't win their final two games rather easily.

As an NFL handicapper, it looks like an 11-5 team to me and the AFC North champion. I hate to project much further, but the Ravens seem like excellent value to win the AFC at +600 as well as +1100 to win the Super Bowl. If everything breaks right and there are no major injuries (especially to Flacco, Boldin and if Reed gets 100 percent), there is no reason this team can't win it all.

Doc Moseman is one of the pioneers of college football and the NFL handicapping industry. Check out his Web site for up-to-the-minute NFL odds and his famous winning college football and NFL picks.

Green Bay Packers 2010 Strength of Schedule, Futures, Odds and Predictions

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The '09 season has to be considered pretty successful for the Packers, as they won five more games than in 2008 (Aaron Rodgers' first year as the starting QB) and earned a playoff spot before their defense was gutted by Kurt Warner in the Wild-Card round against the Arizona Cardinals.

That game did show what Green Bay really has in store for 2010 and what could be a big concern. On the bright side, Rodgers was nearly as good as Warner in that game and Rodgers emerged as a Top 5 quarterback during the regular season, ranking fourth in the NFL in yards (4,434), rating (103.2), touchdown passes (seven) and with the fewest interceptions (seven) of any quarterback with at least 200 attempts. Pretty much all of Rodgers' weapons from last year are back although 35-year-old No. 2 WR Donald Driver might be slowing down as he tailed off in a big way at the end of last season.

Warner went balistic on the Green Bay secondary, especially with Al Harris hurt. Charles Woodson and Harris, one of the best tandems in the NFL for years, are both getting up there in age with Woodson turning 34 this season and Harris during 36. I'm probably picking too much on Woodson considering he was named the NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 2009 and had nine picks and three TDs. Plus he reportedly re-dedicated himself this offseason. Harris, however, is coming off major knee surgery that ended his 2009 season early.

That Green Bay defense will be down two key players this season as Aaron Kampman, a two-time Pro Bowler, is now in Jacksonville (he also suffered a season-ending injury in November last season) and Johnny Jolly was suspended without pay for 2010 after violating the league's substance abuse policy. Although if there's one area the Pack can withstand a few hits, it's probably on the defensive line.

The oddsmakers have Green Bay's wins total at 9.5 for NFL season win totals. What's the best bet there? Let's check the 2010 Green Bay Packers schedule (all times Eastern):

Week 1: Sunday, Sep. 12, at Philadelphia, 4:15 PM
Week 2: Sunday, Sep. 19, Buffalo, 1:00 PM
Week 3: Monday, Sep. 27, at Chicago, 8:30 PM
Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 3, Detroit, 1:00 PM
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 10, at Washington, 1:00 PM
Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 17, Miami, 1:00 PM
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 24, Minnesota, 8:20 PM
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 31, at NY Jets, 1:00 PM
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 7, Dallas, 8:20 PM
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 21, at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 28, at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 5, San Francisco, 1:00 PM
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 12, at Detroit, 1:00 PM
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 19, at New England, 8:20 PM
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 26, NY Giants, 4:15 PM
Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 2, Chicago, 1:00 PM

This schedule ranks as the 22nd hardest in the NFL with an opponents' 2009 cumulative winning percentage of.488 (125-131).

Checking the football betting lines for the first six games, there's really no reason Green Bay should be any worse than 4-2. The Pack get the benefit of being the first opponent of new Eagles starter Kevin Kolb (that game is currently a 'pick'em'), and nobody knows who the quarterback of the Bills will be. The Packers swept the Bears last season by nearly identical scores (21-14 and 21-15), and that matchup will be in prime time for the fifth straight season with the first meeting between the two being No. 180 in the all-time series. This is the 18th consecutive season the Packers have appeared on "Monday Night Football," the NFC's longest streak.

The Pack better be no worse than 4-2 because they could easily fall into a three-game skid (albeit unlikely) entering the bye week with games against Super Bowl contenders in the Vikings, Jets and Cowboys. Of course, that Minnesota game will be Brett Favre's second-ever game as a visitor at Lambeau. He led the Vikings to a 30-23 win over Green Bay in a Monday night game at Minnesota last season and then a 38-28 win at Lambeau.

Green Bay has the benefit of an extra week to prepare for the rematch with Minnesota (the Vikes aren't off the same week) in a game that could well determine the NFC North. Week 10 is the latest a team can have a bye, by the way, and it's the latest the Pack have ever had theirs. Four road games in five weeks is pretty rare, but Green Bay is 18-11 overall on the road under Mike McCarthy from Nov. 15 and beyond. Then the Packers finish with back-to-back home games for only the second time since 1923. Since 1998, the Packers have finished the season against the Bears three times, all of them victories in Chicago.

NFL Handicapping makes this look like a 10-6-type schedule for Green Bay, which may or may not be enough to win the NFC North (I predicted 10-6 for Minnesota as well), but it should be enough for a return trip to the playoffs. Green Bay is currently a slight favorite (+125) over the Vikings to win the North and +650 to win the NFC (tied with Minnesota behind New Orleans and Dallas).

Doc Moseman is one of the pioneers of college football and the NFL Handicapping industry. Check out his Web site for up-to-the-minute NFL Odds and his famous winning college football and NFL picks.