Saturday, 26 May 2012
Saturday, 24 December 2011
Fantasy Hockey Sleeper Picks for 2011-12
If you've played fantasy hockey (or any fantasy sport) for long, you know that you don't typically win a season based on those first few rounds of picking superstars. For the most part, those picks all even out. It's the sleepers that can take an ordinary team and propel it to greatness. Finding that hidden gem, late in the draft, that finishes in the top 10 can make all the difference in the world. So what are you looking for as you scan your eye deep down the list of last year's stats? A few factors come to mind:
1. Young, rising stars who are being promoted into a bigger role. For many players, it's simply a matter of opportunity. Consider Claude Giroux last season. No one doubted the talent. He just had too many stars to leapfrog to get to 20 minutes a game. When the hole opened up, he seized it.
2. Down and back again. Some players saw a decline in recent years, due to injury or other factors. When they're set to return, they can often be overlooked and undervalued. This can also ring true for players who left to play in the KHL for a time and are now returning to the NHL.
3. Young guns who peaked early, then slid a bit. Often times, a rookie will burst out of the gate, then level off in their 2nd or 3rd season. We tend to write these players off by their fourth year, when in reality, that's just the time when we should expect them to hit their prime. Here is where you can find some real value.
GOALIES
Tuukka Rask (BOS)
Even in the midst of Thomas's superhuman season, Rask managed to find his way into 29 games last season. That shows how serious the Bruins are about getting him playing time. Add in the extended playoff run, and Boston will turn to him more and more in 2011-12. Should Thomas come down to earth, or sustain another injury, Rask will instantly propel to a top 10 option. Don't be afraid to draft him, as he'll get enough starts either way to warrant the selection.
Curtis McElhinney (PHO)
With Bryzgalov gone, the starting gig in the desert is completely up for grabs. McElhinney seems like a fair bet to edge out LaBarbera and Smith for the early starts. This one won't be decided until the first puck drops. If you're looking for a late-round gamble in a deep league desperate for goalie starts, throw McElhinney on your list.
DEFENSE
Jonathan Blum (NAS)
Blum was a first round pick in 2007, but has (and will continue to) struggled to earn top minutes on the crowded Nashville defense. He has the skills to put up big numbers. He just needs the opportunity to make it happen. He could be a good sleeper to keep an eye this season.
Alex Edler (VAN)
Edler missed the 2nd half of the season with a back injury. He returned in the playoffs, and while he didn't produce much offensively, the important thing is that he showed himself to have fully recovered. With Ehrhoff out of town, the Canucks will be counting on Edler to play top minutes. Expect 40+ points from him in 2011-12.
Ryan Whitney (EDM)
Whitney started last season on a tear, with 27 points in 35 games. A severe ankle injury ended his season prematurely. Most fantasy owners have probably forgotten about him at this point. He should be ready for the start of the season. Look for Whitney to be the lone source of hope on the Edmonton defense this season once again.
OFFENSE
Tyler Kennedy (PIT)
With all the big names that wear a sweater in Pittsburgh, it's easy to overlook the 5'11'' winger who wears #48. Penguin fans know that he's the one thing that kept the offense alive when the plague hit last spring. Kennedy has never passed on a chance to shoot the puck, and given enough time on the wing with Crosby or Malkin, he has a good shot at cracking 30 goals sometime soon.
Vincent Lecavalier (TB)
Hard to paint a $10 million dollar center as a sleeper, but his declining point totals have him falling out of sight for fantasy players. Down the stretch and into the playoffs, he looked a bit more like the Vinnie of old. He registered 17 points in the last 14 regular season games. He also played above a point a game through the long playoff run last spring.
James Neal (PIT)
Neal was a shocking disappointment upon arriving in Pittsburgh last spring. The goal scorer in Dallas suddenly went dry with the Pens. Perhaps the summer will be good for his psyche and he'll start things fresh in the fall. Should he find significant time along side Malkin and/or Crosby, the theory is he can be a lethal sniper. He should be available late in the draft and is worth a shot.
Tyler Seguin (BOS)
There's a chance that Seguin won't even make the team this fall. There's a better chance he'll be a significant fantasy factor by the end of the season. He showed flashes of brilliance in the playoffs that justify his #2 overall selection in 2010. His versatility will help his cause as well, since he can slide into the center or wing position. With Horton and Savard still reeling from concussions, it seems likely that Seguin can fill a scoring void for Boston this season.
Paul Stastny (COL)
Stastny's totals in 2010-11 were disappointing after the standard his set for himself in his first few seasons. He dropped from 79 points to 57, yet he actually scored more goals last year. His low point total will cause many owners to undervalue him at this year's draft. He could easily turn it on and crack 80 points this season. Prime sleeper candidate to target mid-draft.
A few other guys who will be undervalued based on last season's performance, but are hard to paint as "sleepers" to consider as you draft:
- Nicklas Backstrom (WAS)
- Pavel Datsyuk (DET)
- Ryan Getzlaf (ANA)
- Ilya Kovalchuk (NJ)
Visit us at http://www.landsharkhockey.com for free fantasy hockey tips, tools, and strategies.
Tuesday, 3 May 2011
Fantasy Hockey - Sharing the Crease
Drafting goalies is a risky proposition. More than any position, this choice can make or break the fate of your fantasy hockey team. One of the biggest factors you need to consider is how often a goalie is going to play. Some netminders can be counted on to get 70+ starts a season, while others will sharing the net with another man. In short, you want to avoid the split crease scenario. As Philly and others demonstrated last season, NHL teams are more likely than ever to go with a goalie system, rather than depending on one star goalie to carry the load. While that may play well in the NHL, it's a nightmare for fantasy hockey managers. So as you finalize your cheat sheets, consider how secure each goalie's starting job will be throughout the season, and make sure you select at least one workhorse for your roster.
Solid Starters
Roughly half the teams in the NHL have an undisputed #1 goalie. Barring injury or complete collapse, these guys should start 60+ games this season, so no need to be concerned here:
- Buffalo- Miller
- Montreal- Price
- New Jersey- Brodeur
- Pittsburgh- Fleury
- NY Rangers- Lundqvist
- Carolina- Ward
- Florida- Vokoun
- Detroit- Howard
- Nashville- Rinne
- Vancouver- Luongo
- Colorado- Andersson
- Calgary- Kiprusoff
- Phoenix- Bryzgalov
- Anaheim- Hiller
- Dallas- Lehtonen
Almost There
There are a handful of goalies that are almost guaranteed starters, but haven't quite locked up the job 100%.
Rask is a sexy-bold pick for your starting goalie this fall, but don't get overconfident here. Thomas didn't exactly lose his job, as much as Rask earned it. Things could easily go the other way this time around. Thomas is making too much cash to sit idle all season long, and his no-trade says he'll be a Bruin for awhile.
All signs point to a successful bounce back season for Turco as he assumes the #1 spot for the Cup champs. However, Crawford will push hard for starts, and the Huet situation hasn't technically been resolved yet. I can't see any goalie getting more than 50 games in Chicago this season.
Halak should have the edge as the go-to guy in St. Louis, but the Blues have said there's no clear starter. Conklin has had a very solid career and is capable of being a #1, though he's never earned the role. Like Chicago, 50 games may be the ceiling for either guy, so grab a cowbell and simmer down on that Halak-fever.
Split Creases
Roughly one third of the teams in the league enter the season without a clear-cut number 1 goalie. There are some darn good goalies in this group, so don't write them off entirely. Just be aware that questions remain, and you should consider drafting both options as a safety net.
Leclaire was brought in to be the #1 guy, but injuries opened the door for Elliot. Both are capable options, and both will see some net. Safer bet is Elliot, but don't forget they went back to Leclaire in the playoffs. And then there's that "other Brodeur" guy who may make a guest appearance again.
Giguere is obviously Burke's favorite, but he's the GM, not the coach. Both men are highly skilled and injury prone. Toronto's defense is stellar and should allow both to put up solid stats, but there's just no way of getting past the playing time questions here.
Bottom line is that I just don't see Varlamov as a long-term solution in Washington. Neuvirth will be given the chance to win the job, but don't be surprised if McPhee swings a deal for an outsider at some point this season, if neither of these men seem sufficient to bring the Cup to D.C.
Pavelec was in a great spot following the Lehtonen trade last season. He's back to singing for his supper, as the Thrashers brought in a capable starter in Chris Mason. I see this one playing out right down the middle, 50/50. And since most of those starts will be losses either way, neither goalie should crack your top 20.
(See Atlanta)
You've got to believe that last season was a fluke for Mason, and that he'll be back on top in 2010 (particularly if you're from Ohio). There's no long-term future in Garon. Mason will be motivated as he plays for his first big pay day. However, until he earns it back, we'll stick Mason in the split-crease heap with the rest.
The Wild have been grooming Harding for a few years now, and Backstrom's health is always a concern. Backstrom's $6m price tag suggests he'll be favored, but then again, Harding has the UFA carrot dangling out there if he can perform. Should be an interesting battle in the State of Hockey.
For years now, the San Jose net was a place of comfort for fantasy owners. Draft Nabokov and have no worries. Now, what to do? 3 adequate goalies on a team that will pile up the wins, regardless of who they dress in net. This is the definition of risk-reward when it comes to goalies. As tempting at each may be, my advice is avoid the heartburn.
Sure, Quick piled up 39 wins in72 games last season, so why isn't he in Category 1 you ask? Well, I get the impression he was just keeping the crease warm for Bernier. Don't forget, Quick went a couple months last winter when he couldn't buy a win. It's a good problem to have for Kings fans, but an awful dilemma for us fantasy nuts.
Anybody's Guess
Finally, there are three teams that merit their own special category, as we have no idea how the goaltending will play out over the course of this season. Best advice is to just completely ignore these options at your draft.
Fantasy football offers the cop-out "Team Defense" category. Teams like the Flyers make you want to push for such an option in our game. If the last 10 years gave us anything to go on, Philly will enter the playoffs with Jose Theodore, Vesa Toskala, or Dominic Hasek as their starting man.
You have a young guy with an old-man's medical chart and an old guy with the stamina of a college student. Anybody's guess how this will play out. Best to steer clear.
No threat of the Jennings trophy making an appearance in Oil country next spring, thanks to this goalie carousel. Just stay away.
Visit us at http://www.landsharkhockey.com for free fantasy hockey tips, tools, and strategies.
Saturday, 18 December 2010
Fantasy Hockey Players Warnings For 2010-11
Information is key if you want to dominate your fantasy hockey draft. Here are some players with major risk factors, that you should be wary of drafting, and in some cases, you should strike him from your list completely.
Offense
Maxim Afinogenov ATL
Afinogenov signed on to play in the KHL. So you may want to avoid drafting him, eh?
David Krejci BOS
After putting up 73 points in 2008-09, Krejci had a let down last year, dipping to 52. He had a good run in the playoffs; however, off-season surgery on his wrist may slow him down at the start of the season. If he's healthy to start the season, he should rebound in fantasy value, but keep an eye on his status before you draft.
Tomas Plekanec MON
Plekanec was a fantasy star in the first half of last season, only to slow down as the year progressed. He disappeared in the playoffs, registering just 11 points in 19 games. He's been very inconsistent over his career to this point, seeing point totals of 47, 69, 39, and 70 over the past four seasons. Following that pattern, he's scheduled for a downturn.
Defense
Marc-Andre Bergeron (UFA)
Since entering the league, Bergeron has carried expectations of developing into a offensive-defenseman. While it's come in spurts, he has yet to reach any noteworthy milestones in terms of points. However, he has put up some decent goal totals the last two seasons. Assuming he resigns with Montreal (big assumption) he could get plenty of powerplay time with Markov on the shelf. Until he signs a deal, he's a risky option. He's also had a history of injury to add to his risk factor.
Denis Grebeshkov NAS
Grebeshkov signed with the KHL. So don't draft him, sucker.
Joni Pitkanen CAR
Pitkanen is one of those players that always seems to be capable of more, so you're tempted to give him one more chance. When healthy and on his game, he's a dynamic offensive player; however, 46 points is the most he's achieved in one season, which he did again last year. Playing on a rebuilding Hurricanes roster won't add to his value either, so budget for 40 points and hope for more.
Sheldon Souray EDM
Charting Souray's goal and point totals will give you a headache: over the past 5 years, he's scored 12, 26, 3, 23, and 4. A lot of that is due to injury, but you also have to consider the impact of his relationship with the Oilers right now. Souray has asked to be traded, so if he remains, how effective will he be? He's also 34 years old, which isn't a positive thing for an injury-prone defenseman. His goal potential is tempting, but proceed with caution.
Goalies
Jean-Sebastien Giguere TOR
As a team, the Maple Leafs have assembled a top notch defense. So from that perspective, drafting a Toronto goalie could be a respectable option for the first time in a decade. On the other hand, it's 50/50 on which goalie you should pick. Giguere and Gustavsson are in a dead heat for the job and will likely split the starts until one gets hot. Burke obviously likes Giguere, so he may have a slight edge, but you may want to watch training camp before making your choice. Either way, look for improved numbers from Giguere this season.
Jonas Gustavsson TOR
(See J.S. Giguere). Classic split crease scenario with two goalies apt to get injured. Whoever gets the starts should deliver good fantasy numbers, so if you draft one, you may want to pocket the other on your bench.
Ray Emery (UFA)
Still waiting to find a home...
Semyon Varlamov WAS
With Theodore leaving town, most GMs assume Varlamov is the guy. And who wouldn't want the starting goalie for the President's Trophy winning team on their roster? The problem here is that Varlamov has done very little to prove he's here to stay as the Capitals top goalie. He may be pushed this fall by Michael Neuvirth, and if neither of them can shine, don't be surprised to see Washington deal for #1. If he can keep the job, Varlamov will get his wins, but there are much safer options out there.
Visit us at http://www.landsharkhockey.com for free fantasy hockey tips, tools, and strategies.
Thursday, 4 November 2010
Sports Betting 101- How to Bet on Hockey
Image : http://www.flickr.com
The most recent changes brought about in the hockey world centered around the NHL lock-out of the 2004-2005 season, the end result was a season without hockey and a flurry of new rules, most of the new rules were created and designed to bring more excitement to the game of hockey, however, these same rule changes also affected the way a gambler now wagers on hockey with regard to the elimination of ties and the new shootout format to decide games which of course put an end to games ending in a tie and brought about the introduction of the "money-line" to hockey.
Wagering on the "money-line" and/or on pitchers is nothing new to those familiar to wagering on baseball, these new rules mentioned above make hockey wagering almost identical to baseball wagering in that the best route to take is simply betting a team to win or lose, the difference is that in baseball you must know your pitchers but in hockey you must know your goalies, in my humble opinion the best way to wager on hockey is by concentrating on spread doggies or slight favorites, think about it a moment if you will my friend, if you were to concentrate the bulk of your wagers on the doggies and make these same wagers on the "money-line", then all you have to do is simply break even in the win/loss column to produce a profit, following is a list of key factors to look for when making a hockey wager:
1) The most important consideration is to know who is playing goalie for the two teams involved in any given contest, the reason being is due to the fact that a goalie is the single most important player on the ice and his performance will directly translate to the success of any given team on any given night. Keep up on starting line-ups and monitor the injury reports of each team playing on a particular day, often a situation will arise in which a back-up goalie gets the start.
2) Have a team by team schedule for the season on hand and realize in advance any and all scheduling situations that can and will impact any given teams performance, keep in mind that teams playing consecutive games on the have a tough row to hoe when facing rested home teams, quite often visiting teams do not arrive to the host city until early the next morning because they finished up a night game and then had to travel. In this scenario the visiting coach usually does not schedule a practice in order to keep the legs of his team fresh.
3) Hockey is similar to football in two key ways, first of all both games are very physical in nature, and secondly the adage that defense wins championships holds true in both sports. In hockey like football, there exists two type of teams, some teams play a style that is predicated on intimidating physical play featured by hard hitting while other teams play more of a finesse style of play predicated on timing, when two teams with these contrasting styles play usually the team with the more physical defense wins.
One of the nations most prolific handicappers is Jim Campbell who can be found at http://www.footballforecastor.com, he once again showed his expertise by finishing the 2005-2006 college football season with an overall amazing and eye opening mark of 49-32-1 ATS for a winning rate of 60.49% which includes a record of 9-4 ATS with his College Bowl selections and also includes his winning selection of Texas over USC in the BCS National Championship Game, that winning result on Texas means that Jim Campbell has now correctly picked the point spread winner in the past EIGHT straight College National Championship games.
Over the past 35 yrs plus, Jim Campbell has been on both sides of the Sports Investment Business, as a entrepreneur that ran his own business, to building and maintaining a private clientele base that greatly benefits from his superior handicapping expertise in the sporting arena.
Jim Campbell runs www.FootballForecastor.com which has been an internet based sports handicapping service since 1997, you will be hard pressed to find another handicapper that has had the kind of success Jim has had, over the past eight years he has maintained one of the very best winning percentages of any sports handicapping service.
Jim Campbell finished the final four weeks of the 2005 NFL regular season with a mark of 14-5-2 ATS coming down the stretch for a winning rate of 73.68% and for the season in the NFL he finished with an overall mark of 48-33-4 ATS for a winning rate of 59.26% and that includes a perfect mark of 7-0 ATS in the NFL Playoffs, Jim has posted a mark of 6-2 ATS over the past EIGHT years with his Super Bowl selections.